POLARIS

This page contains updates from our POLARIS model as well as further analysis on those results.

  • Bar graph titled 'Current Projections' showing seat projections for UK's political parties. Labour leads with 218 seats, Conservative 136, Reform UK 135, Liberal Democrat 70, Scottish National Party 41, Independents 20, Green Party 5, Plaid Cymru 3. Red, blue, yellow, purple, green, and black bars represent each party's projections.

    Projections show Reform UK and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck in an election today

    2nd April 2025

    The POLARIS model indicates a fragmented political landscape, where forming a stable governing coalition would be exceptionally difficult. Labour, despite still being predicted to be the largest party, is projected to fall significantly short of a majority.

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  • Bar chart showing the number of seats or votes for various UK political parties. Labour has 200, Conservative 190, Reform UK 102, Liberal Democrat 70, Scottish National Party 42, Independents 16, Green Party 7, and Plaid Cymru 4.

    Reform UK are on Track to Win Over 100 Seats

    9th January 2025

    As Reform UK passes the 100 seat mark in POLARIS’ projections this report takes a deep dive look at the constituencies projected to be won by the party in a General Election. Using surveys, interviews and state-of-the-art modelling this report presents a fresh view on the changing shape of British Politics and those behind the tectonic shifts.

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  • Bar chart showing different political parties and their counts: Labour 256, Conservative 208, Reform UK 71, Liberal Democrat 66, Independents 15, Scottish National Party 6, Green Party 5, Plaid Cymru 4.

    POLARIS: A New Method For Election Prediction

    28th December 2024

    POLARIS (Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System) is a new model developed to leverage the wealth of data provided by council by-election results to predict election outcomes mid-cycle. This method uses demographic indicators of council wards that these elections take place in, such as proportion of degree educated individuals and the proportion of those unemployed, to predict vote share changes for each of the major parties.

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