This page contains updates from our POLARIS model as well as further analysis on those results.

  • Bar chart showing current projections of UK parliamentary seats for different political parties, with Labour leading at 218 seats, followed by Conservative at 136 seats, Reform UK at 135 seats, Liberal Democrat at 70 seats, Scottish National Party at 41 seats, Independents at 20 seats, Green Party at 5 seats, and Plaid Cymru at 3 seats.

    Projections show Reform UK and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck in an election today

    2nd April 2025

    The POLARIS model indicates a fragmented political landscape, where forming a stable governing coalition would be exceptionally difficult. Labour, despite still being predicted to be the largest party, is projected to fall significantly short of a majority.

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  • A horizontal bar chart showing votes or support levels for different UK political parties and groups. Labour has the highest with 200, followed by Conservative with 190, Reform UK with 102, Liberal Democrat with 70, Scottish National Party with 42, Independents with 16, Green Party with 7, and Plaid Cymru with 4.

    Reform UK are on Track to Win Over 100 Seats

    9th February 2025

    As Reform UK passes the 100 seat mark in POLARIS’ projections this report takes a deep dive look at the constituencies projected to be won by the party in a General Election. Using surveys, interviews and state-of-the-art modelling this report presents a fresh view on the changing shape of British Politics and those behind the tectonic shifts.

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  • Horizontal bar chart showing the number of seats or votes for various political parties in the UK. Labour has 256, Conservative 208, Reform UK 71, Liberal Democrat 66, Independents 15, Scottish National Party 6, Green Party 5, and Plaid Cymru 4.

    POLARIS: A New Method For Election Prediction

    28th December 2024

    POLARIS (Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System) is a new model developed to leverage the wealth of data provided by council by-election results to predict election outcomes mid-cycle. This method uses demographic indicators of council wards that these elections take place in, such as proportion of degree educated individuals and the proportion of those unemployed, to predict vote share changes for each of the major parties.

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