UK General Election 2024

With less than 12 hours to go until polls open, JL Partners’ final SRP model shows the Labour party potentially winning 442 seats with the electorate handing the party a 234 seat majority. The Conservatives are projected to win around 111 seats.

However, they could win as few as 77 if the polls move 3 points against them or up to 153 if the polls move 3 points in their favour. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are on course to potentially take 58 seats, with an upper possible bound of 69 seats, increasing their seat count by 44. Whilst Reform UK take 16% of the popular vote, they fail to translate this into more than a single seat due to the uniform nature of their vote share across the country. Finally, the Scottish National Party is set to lose 33 seats, holding on to just 15 Westminster seats.