Future of the Country Research

In July 2025, JL Partners’ “Future of the Country” study slices the UK electorate into ten attitudinal blocs. The biggest are Pessimist Patriots (21%), Delivery Driven Optimists (18%), Successful Graduates and Country Focused Centrists (each 14%), and Big State Boomers (13%), alongside smaller clusters such as Crisis Campaigners, Climate Capitalists, the Online Right, Europhile Centrists and the Freedom First Group.

Today’s party coalitions mirror that map: Conservatives lean most on Pessimist Patriots, Big State Boomers and Delivery Driven Optimists; Labour’s strength sits with Successful Graduates, Delivery Driven Optimists and Country Focused Centrists; Reform draws heavily from Pessimist Patriots, while the Liberal Democrats are anchored in centrist, graduate-heavy groups.

The report’s route back for the Conservatives is to prioritise Pessimist Patriots, make Big State Boomers the secondary target, and treat Delivery Driven Optimists as a large but harder “reach”; centre-left segments are lower priority, and the fringe right offers limited returns.

A seat model starting from 100 suggests roughly +79 via an 80%-effective push to Pessimist Patriots, +30 from Big State Boomers, a marginal +6 from fringe-right groups, and +30 from Delivery Driven Optimists—partly offset by 19 losses on the centre-left—landing near 226.

The messaging advice: clarify immigration and the NHS, and double down on cost of living and the economy.